Blindsight

As of 2:05 PM PDT

CRISTOBAL:
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
        probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours
    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Iceland
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

The only other Icelandic hurricane of note that comes up in a search was in 1900, and all I get is a NYT headline, no story.
However, no search goes to waste, and I came across a link to NOAA, called the Earth Observatory.  What would the world be like if every dollar the government spent paid off the way NASA dollars do?  In any case, this has been slightly downgraded since last evening, when it was on track to hit  Reykjavik.
Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 15:00 GMT

Hurricane BERTHA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Iceland
        probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.


Looks like TS AL03 is currently off the coast of the Carolinas, heading NNE. The course logged on the map has it hitting land off Massachusetts: Boston.
 
Storm Alert issued at 19 Jul, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL03 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
        probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

A busy weather day.

A search for information about the tropical storm battering Taiwan led me to Yahoo News of all places. They've really upgraded their info, check out the raw video of the storm, link on the left side of the page.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=8875896&ch=4226714&src=news

Here's a classic Black Swan, (an event that no one (or very few people) foresees, that has enormous impact, and for which we create a narrative after the fact).  http://www.scientistlive.com/lab/?/Nanotechnology/2008/06/27/20660/Quantum_computing_breakthrough/

 

hahahah. I wanted the definition of hadron, as in the large hadron collider. This is why I gave up trying to understand QM. I'd read a page three or four times, get to the bottom and start laughing. I know they think they are writing English, but it makes no sense. If all baryons are fermions, are all fermions baryons?  And if they are the same, then why do they have two names for the same particle, or sub particle? And then there are the black beauties...

A hadron (pronounced /hɑːdɹɒn/, from Greek ἁδρός, hadros, thick), in particle physics, is any strongly interacting composite subatomic particle. All hadrons are composed of quarks. Hadrons are divided into two classes, according to their baryon number:

• Baryons are all hadrons with a baryon number of 1. Baryons are fermions.

• Triquarks are baryons made of three quarks, such as the protons and the neutron.
• Pentaquarks are exotic baryons made of four quarks and one antiquark. While there is some evidence for their existence, data are controversial and the existence of pentaquarks is neither firmly established nor generally accepted.
• Generally speaking, baryons must have three more quarks than antiquarks. A baryon made of five quarks and two antiquarks would be a heptaquark, one made of six quarks and three antiquarks would be a nonaquark, and so on. It is not known if these particles can even exist.

Phil Graham needs to be sent to the same looney bin as Joe Lieberman.

Due to circumstances beyond my control I have the day free until 3 o'clock. I'd rather be working, but so it is. I have a headache, which almost never happens, and feel slightly "off".  Just as my car still smells of smoke, I can feel the smoke in my lungs. I don't feel "right", and I have to wonder if the headache is my body processing out the toxins. Plus my back is in spasm. Duh.

I went for a walk this morning, now it's time to get the laundry and ironing done, but I think I'll take an ibuprofen and do some paper shredding for half an hour, see if I don't perk up a bit. I need some paper for the worm bins, so it's a win/win deal and I can listen to Democracy Now as I shred.  Yep. I think that's exactly what I'm going to do.    

Democracy Now, July 3
(archive available on line)

“Global Disruption” More Accurately Describes Climate Change, Not “Global Warming” - Leading Scientist John Holdren

Leading scientist John Holdren says “global warming” is not the correct term to use; he prefers “global disruption.” “‘Global warming’ [is] misleading. It implies something that’s mainly about temperature, that’s gradual, and that’s uniform across the planet,” says Holdren. “In fact, temperature is only one of the things that’s changing. It’s a sort of an index of the state of the climate. The whole climate is changing: the winds, the ocean currents, the storm patterns, snow packs, snowmelt, flooding, droughts. Temperature is just a bit of it.”

Makes sense to me. We'll soon be seeing mass migrations of all animals, including man. What could be more disruptive than getting burned out of your home or have the well go dry?\

Yet another alert. So far it's been nice around my house, cold and foggy. I'll hit the heat tonight as I drive north. I'm concerned about the firemen, the inadequate resource the State has to fight this many fires. Like the mervicemena and women in Iraq, the State is understaffed, and those who are called are doing more than their share. It must be frustrating.

I wouldn't last half an hour out there, I don't know how they do it, but I'm deeply grateful that they do.

Fire and Ice

Some say the world will end in fire;
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
                             Robert Frost  

Haha - Robert FROST. Get it? 

.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY... THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN... ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLING BY FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES...THE MEASURE OF DISCOMFORT CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY...WILL LIKELY REACH WARNING LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...AND IN THE CUYAMA VALLEY TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA WILL MAKE HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEP UP SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ON THURSDAY...THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MAY SEND HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE WARNING LEVELS AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS... AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR THOSE AREAS. ... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 104 TO 112 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY AND THE CUYAMA VALLEY TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES...A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY... WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES TODAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM PDT.         
            
    Instruction:       
    AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS... STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM... STAY OUT OF THE SUN... AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.        
           
    Area: SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-        
    Affected Counties or parts of: Santa Barbara, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, Los Angeles
 

How to entertain your dog!

My Scotty would have gone nuts for this. I love the wagging tail!

http://www.snotr.com/video/997

LJ LInks are NOT Working!

Up and out early, had my car smogged and checked out for my trip, everything is a-okay. Had my favorite breakfast of vegatarian posole at Big Sky, read a thought provoking article in The Sun about how we treat our veterans and how an expert thinks we should treat them. About how other cultures have healed the wounds of war in their warriors, and the spiritual nature of healing a wounded soul. How to use Memorial Day and Veterans Day as an opportunity, in every community, to listen to the stories these men and women have to tell. From what I saw of Phil Donohue's new movie, it does just that. You can read the entire article on line:
http://www.thesunmagazine.org/issues/390/like_wandering_ghosts

(LJ is kinking up any links, just copy and paste)

I've had 6 or 8 excessive heat warnings from EDIS in the past two days. First it was the Bay area, now it includes the Sacramento Valley. Guess where I'm headed on Wednesday evening? Yep. San Jose and off (through) Sacramento on Thursday morning. Am thinking that if I'm not too tired I'll head out about 4AM, see if I can get a little north of the heat by 9 or 10 o'clock.  Susan's house doesn't have air conditioning, I'll be surprised if I sleep at all.

Time to hunker down. Another alert just came in.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND NOTED ON MONDAY WILL ONLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY. BUT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DURING THOSE DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO 103. SOME OF THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB AS HIGH AS 110. EVEN THOUGH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INLAND... WARM WEATHER WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE OCEAN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY. COOLING WILL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS...AND FROM 100 TO 105 FOR THE HOTTEST INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES. IN ADDITION... OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. PLACES ABOVE A 1000 FEET WILL SEE THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. ONLY MINOR RELIEF IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY.       
          
    Instruction:      
    A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR- CONDITIONED ROOM... STAY OUT OF THE SUN... AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.       
          
    Area: NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY... INCLUDING SAN JOSE-SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY... ARROYO SECO... AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDINGPINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY... HOLLISTER VALLEY... AND CARMEL VALLEY-       
    Affected Counties or parts of: San Francisco, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, Marin, Monterey, Contra Costa, Napa, San Benito, Sonoma, Santa Clara, Alameda

Obama on abortion rights:

WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama says "mental distress" should not qualify as a justification for late-term abortions, a key distinction not embraced by many supporters of abortion rights.

In an interview this week with "Relevant," a Christian magazine, Obama said prohibitions on late-term abortions must contain "a strict, well defined exception for the health of the mother."

Obama then added: "Now, I don't think that 'mental distress' qualifies as the health of the mother. I think it has to be a serious physical issue that arises in pregnancy, where there are real, significant problems to the mother carrying that child to term."

In my experience, mental distress = child abuse.  I think of all the mothers out there going through all kinds of hell, and I'm astonished at the arrogance. That's three four five strikes against Obama in two weeks. The centrist thing isn't working for me.   
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Then there is Karl Rove giving the finger to the House Judiciary Committee. Will the day come when Conyers can say  "will face contempt" instead of "could" ?

WASHINGTON -- Former White House deputy chief of staff Karl Rove won't testify next week before a House committee investigating the prosecution of former Gov. Don Siegelman, despite a threat of a contempt proceeding.

Rove is exerting executive privilege and declined the invitation to appear before the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday, his attorney Robert Luskin wrote to the House panel Tuesday. A lawsuit is pending in federal court in Washington over whether top White House officials can be compelled to testify before Congress, he wrote.

The Judiciary Committee has been seeking Rove's testimony since April, and committee Chairman Rep. John Con-
yers, D-Mich., said in a response letter sent Thursday that he was "disappointed" with Rove's decision.

The committee has been investigating claims that the Bush administration politicized the Justice Department and used it to selectively prosecute Democratic public officials for crimes. The committee is seeking information about whether Rove played a role in prosecuting Siegelman, a popular Democrat.

Siegelman was convicted of corruption in 2006 but was released from prison on bond in March following an appeals court ruling. The court said Siegelman's appeal raised substantial questions that could result in a new trial or dismissal.

"Refusing even to attend the hearing flies in the face of the recent conduct of several high-ranking White officials, including current vice presidential chief of staff and presidential assistant David Addington and former White House Secretary Scott McClellan," Conyers wrote.

Rove could face contempt of Congress violations if he continues to refuse, Conyers wrote.

White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolton and Harriet Miers, former counsel to the president, both were voted in contempt of Congress by the House in February for refusing to testify before the Judiciary Committee. But the Justice Department has yet to pursue prosecution, leaving further action up to the courts.

 

A photography book about sand, or should I say, grains of sand.
short video: http://www.sandgrains.com/Book-Video.html

RALEIGH, N.C. --

Former Sen. Jesse Helms, who built a career along the fault lines of racial politics and battled liberals, Communists and the occasional fellow Republican during 30 conservative years in Congress, died on the Fourth of July. He was 86.

(PROFOUND SILENCE)

This was essentially my reaction after I watch Wes Clark. (He's got a point. Even if John McCain was highly capable as a squadron leader when he was in his early 20's, what does that have to do with his competency at 73?)

Fake Outrage Over Clark Comments

Posted on Jul 2, 2008

By Joe Conason

Despite all the feigned outrage fanned by the mainstream media and the right-wing noisemakers, Wesley Clark—retired four-star general, former supreme commander of NATO, wounded and highly decorated veteran of ground combat in Vietnam and a military man to his core—assuredly did not denigrate the war record of John McCain when he talked about the Republican candidate on television last Sunday.

Instead, perhaps naively, Gen. Clark stated a very simple fact. McCain’s service in Vietnam doesn’t prove his aptitude or competence to serve in the nation’s highest office. Or as he told “Face the Nation” host Bob Schieffer on CBS: “I don’t think riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification to be president.”

Nor, with all due respect, is withstanding long captivity and torture by the North Vietnamese. “I certainly honor his service as a prisoner of war. He was a hero to me, and to hundreds of thousands and millions of others in the armed forces, as a prisoner of war,” said Clark. The reservations he expressed were clear and honest, requiring no apology and no scuttling repudiation by Barack Obama.

Supporters of McCain insist that his military service should be exempt from discussion, except when they feel like bringing it up to prove some point about national security, terrorism or the presidency that it really doesn’t prove at all. But of course he was not the only soldier, sailor or airman to survive such experiences with courage and nobility. There was once another former POW whose candidacy for high office vindicates the Clark argument.

Or has everyone forgotten Adm. Stockdale?

The late James Bond Stockdale epitomized the bravery and idealism of the Americans imprisoned and tormented, both physically and mentally, by their captors in Hanoi. Captured and beaten after his Navy jet was shot down, he lived in leg irons for two years and in solitary confinement for four years between September 1965 and February 1973, when he was finally released. His many honors and citations included the Medal of Honor, and he rose to vice admiral. He was a man of indisputable intelligence who taught philosophy at Stanford University and wrote several books before he died of Alzheimer’s disease three years ago.

Yet the sad truth is that Stockdale lived out his final years in the shadow of his disappointing independent candidacy for vice president as industrialist Ross Perot’s running mate in 1992. He knew little about policy or politics, as roughly 70 million Americans discovered with a wince as they watched a televised debate that pitted him against Al Gore and Dan Quayle.

“Who am I? Why am I here?” were his opening lines, a bid to acknowledge his inexperience that left audiences laughing at him. Although he sounded refreshingly unscripted by comparison with his opponents, Stockdale’s evident confusion and unreadiness left him looking like a “bewildered grandfather,” as Maureen Dowd put it. Everybody liked Stockdale, but nobody thought he should be running for vice president, and the notion that he might sit a heartbeat from the Oval Office raised serious questions about Perot’s judgment.

Stockdale was too honorable and too wise to claim that the answer to his own question—“Why am I here?”—should be found in his matchless military record or his epic POW experience. After his humiliation in the debate, he liked to say that he was the candidate of “the people,” but although the people liked him, they didn’t vote for him.

The Stockdale episode also highlights the bias and hypocrisy behind the fury over Gen. Clark’s comments. In the days following the October 1992 debate, Stockdale was roasted from all sides, with much of the most withering commentary emanating from the self-styled superpatriots of the far right, who were angry about the Perot candidacy and worried that Bill Clinton would win the election, as he did.

So a headline in The Washington Times called Stockdale a loser, and conservative columnists denigrated him as “geezerish,” “lame” and “the big loser.” Rush Limbaugh, who evaded the Vietnam draft thanks to an inflamed boil on his behind, devoted nearly an entire broadcast to mocking Stockdale. After playing a clip of the admiral defending abortion rights, the radio host described him as “intellectually vacant” and “pandering” and suggested that his pro-choice views were insincere.

Incidentally, the Limbaugh show’s producer back in October of 1992 was none other than Roger Ailes, who now heads Fox News Channel, where the faked anger over the Clark comments has swiftly reached a seething boil. He’s a phony, and so is this latest eruption of right-wing indignation.

Joe Conason writes for the New York Observer.

A court has ordered Google to hand over the viewing log of every user and every video ever on YouTube. Media giant Viacom is suing Google over copyright violations, and won access to the 12 terabytes of data, but not YouTube’s source code, which it also demanded. Google has asked to anonymize the data.

If new rule changes go through, the FBI will be allowed to open national security investigations without evidence of wrongdoing. Instead, the agency could pursue cases based on profiles of Americans it deems likelier to commit crimes such as terrorism. The policy would be in keeping with the Bush administration’s dragnet, fact-phobic approach to terrorism; the president himself has been critical of profiling.

And, oh yes, Obama is backing down on his withdrawal from Iraq statements. At this rate he's going to push the Progressives to voting for someone else, split the vote and McCain will get elected. I was never a big fan, but now that I see him changing his mind on so much of what he said in the primary, I'm pissed.

It's warming up here for the weekend, blue skies have replaced gray, but my eyes are burning. Taking my lunch break; here's a map of the fires.